Opinion | The Fourth Rajya Sabha Seat: Tie Between NC & BJP, One Vote To Surprise

Polls On Friday

Mudasir Yaqoob

The first Rajya Sabha polls since Jammu and Kashmir’s downgrading to a Union Territory have transformed into a high-stakes battle of strategy and discipline. Political observers largely expect the National Conference (NC) to bag three of the four seats, leaving one for the BJP — but that prediction holds true only if both camps execute their plans flawlessly.

The elections for the four seats have been split across three notifications. In the first, NC’s Chowdhury Mohammad Ramzan faces BJP’s Ali Mohammad Mir; the second pits NC’s Sajjad Kitchloo against BJP’s Rakesh Mahajan. The third notification covers two seats — where NC has fielded party treasurer G.S. (Shammi) Oberoi and Imran Nabi Dar against BJP’s Sat Sharma.

While the first three seats appear to be tilting in favour of NC, the fourth one has turned into a gripping showdown — a contest between NC’s tight management and Leader of Opposition Sunil Sharma’s tactical sharpness. With PDP and Shabir Kulley’s open support, NC’s tally now stands at 28, equalling the BJP’s strength after the saffron party secured 29 votes on the third seat. This has set up the possibility of a tie unless cross-voting changes the equation.

Mehraj Malik has already cast his vote, while Sheikh Khursheed remains undecided — and that uncertainty keeps the suspense alive. The NC has issued a whip to ensure every MLA stands by its candidates, signalling how crucial the margins are.

If NC’s famed organisational discipline holds, it could sweep all four seats — a symbolic victory reasserting its political dominance post-Article 370. But if Sharma manages to break even one vote from the rival camp, it would mark a tactical masterstroke and signal the BJP’s growing influence in J&K’s reshaped political landscape.

The outcome of this fourth seat will not just decide a chair in the Rajya Sabha — it will measure whether old-school political management still reigns supreme, or whether the new playbook of precision and persuasion has taken over Jammu and Kashmir’s corridors of power.