North Carolina’s Role in the 2024 Election Hangs in the Balance

Tariq Bhat

 

With less than a week until Election Day, all eyes are on North Carolina, where a tight race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris has made Republicans increasingly “very nervous,” according to political analyst and pollster Scott Rasmussen. Once considered a reliable component of Trump’s Southern strategy, the state’s support is now seen as fragile amid polling fluctuations, early voting trends, and recent natural disasters that could have far-reaching impacts on voter turnout.

 

 

 

 

North Carolina has long been a vital piece of the electoral puzzle for Republicans, especially in an election cycle where every swing state matters. Rasmussen, in a post on X, commented that while Trump maintains a slight advantage in Southern states overall, “the race remains too close to call” in North Carolina. Trump’s strategy depends on a strong showing across these Southern states to balance potential losses in key Northern states. As Rasmussen pointed out, Trump could potentially secure the presidency by holding onto the South and taking just one of the three “Blue Wall” states, while Harris would need to win all three—a daunting task.

 

 

 

 

 

Polling underscores the uncertainty in North Carolina. A survey by AtlasIntel, compiled by FiveThirtyEight between October 25 and 29, shows Harris with a razor-thin lead of 49 percent to Trump’s 48 percent. Another recent poll by the Trafalgar Group, conducted from October 25 to 28, shows Trump slightly ahead at 49 percent to Harris’ 46 percent. The close margins are adding to Republican anxieties, suggesting that both campaigns will be fighting for every last vote until November 5.

 

 

 

 

 

The situation in North Carolina has been further complicated by the aftermath of Hurricane Helene, which struck the western region of the state on September 26. This devastating storm left at least 96 dead and thousands without power and essential resources. With damages estimated to exceed $50 billion, the hurricane is now the deadliest storm in North Carolina’s modern history.

 

 

 

 

 

Beyond the immediate destruction, the hurricane also disrupted the state’s voting infrastructure, presenting new challenges for election officials. To ensure that all North Carolinians have access to voting, state authorities have introduced measures like relocating polling locations and extending hours. Nonetheless, many in the storm’s hardest-hit areas may struggle to reach polling sites while dealing with ongoing recovery efforts. Whether these voters ultimately participate could be a deciding factor in what is now a highly contested race.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As of October 29, about 3.2 million voters—or approximately 40 percent of registered voters in North Carolina—had already cast their ballots, predominantly through early in-person voting. This high early turnout could indicate enthusiasm, but it’s uncertain whether this trend will benefit one candidate more than the other. Historically, Democrats have seen greater success with early voting in urban areas, while Republicans tend to have strong Election Day turnout. In North Carolina, the shift toward early voting could mean unpredictable outcomes, especially as both campaigns adjust to the post-hurricane circumstances.

 

 

 

 

GOP Response

In response to concerns about North Carolina, the Trump campaign has signaled confidence while acknowledging the challenges. Anna Kelly, a spokesperson for the Republican National Committee, issued a statement to Newsweek reaffirming Trump’s commitment to “rebuild and support North Carolina in the wake of recent disasters.” Kelly underscored the campaign’s belief that North Carolina voters will ultimately reward Trump for his efforts to address the state’s recovery needs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The political and logistical hurdles in North Carolina echo the unpredictability that has characterized this election season. For Republicans, holding North Carolina is critical; it would provide Trump a solid path to victory even if he loses Pennsylvania, as long as he wins other swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. For Harris, however, flipping North Carolina could be crucial to securing the 270 electoral votes needed to win.

 

 

 

 

 

North Carolina, with its deeply impacted residents, has been through a harrowing year. As Election Day approaches, the nation is watching closely to see whether the state will side with the incumbent or shift towards a new administration. For now, the fate of North Carolina—and potentially the nation—remains in the hands of voters facing extraordinary challenges, determined to make their voices heard.