Coronavirus epidemic could peak in India by mid-May: Study

New Delhi, April 22: The coronavirus epidemic could peak in India by the middle of May and gradually peter out after that, a modelling exercise by Times Network in partnership with global consulting firm Protiviti, has predicted.

The ‘Times Fact India Outbreak Report’ looks at three different possibilities and suggests that India could see the number of coronavirus cases crossing 75,000 around May 22.

The team built three models to predict the progression of the coronavirus. Each model provides an estimate of how the outbreak could unfold under different conditions and provides insights on how the government and health infrastructure can respond to the crisis.

The report used three models: the percentage model, the time series model and the Susceptible Exposed Infected Recovered (SEIR) model. The percentage model uses trends in the spread of the disease in Italy and the US, and applies them onto India to predict its trajectory.

The time series model takes into consideration data across time periods in China and South Korea, and adapts them to India’s data. The SEIR model is based on an estimation of reproduction rate of the virus, which is the average number of people each positive person infects. Together, the three models provided six projections for the outbreak and give an indication of when it might be safe to lift the lockdown.

The report also predicted two scenarios to show when the case tally could fall to zero. The scenarios assume the lockdown is extended beyond May 3 and the reproduction rate of the virus is 0.8, that is, each infected person spreads the disease to 0.8 other people.

In the first scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 15, the case tally will fall to zero by September 15. In the second scenario, if the lockdown is extended to May 30, cases will drop to zero by mid-June.