Exit Polls Show Donald Trump Leading in 2024 US Presidential Election Amid Record Early Voter Turnout
Tariq Bhat
As Election Day approaches on Tuesday, exit polls indicate that Donald Trump is currently leading with a significant 80% share in some surveys. With millions of Americans having already cast their ballots, this year’s early voter turnout reflects shifting trends in voting behavior that have reshaped the landscape of US elections.
While both Trump and his opponent’s supporters are interpreting early numbers optimistically, the outcome remains uncertain as final votes are yet to be counted.
Early voting numbers are substantial, with over 62.7 million Americans having already submitted ballots by Thursday. This figure surpasses the early vote counts from the 2016 and 2012 elections, which saw 47.2 million and 46.2 million early ballots cast, respectively. However, it falls short of the record-breaking 101.5 million early ballots cast in 2020, a pandemic-driven peak when social distancing concerns kept many Americans away from crowded Election Day polling places.
The increased early voting signifies a growing preference among voters for more flexible options, even beyond the pandemic’s immediate impact.
With record turnout on both sides, each campaign is eager to interpret early voting data as a favorable sign. While states vary widely in how they report early voting numbers, many do provide details that hint at party preferences, along with demographic information like age, race, and gender. Supporters of Trump and his opponent alike have seized on these reports to predict victory, but exit poll data can be challenging to interpret conclusively. Early voting demographics are complex, and these preliminary indicators may not reflect the final Election Day outcome.
Early voting’s popularity stems from several factors. Expanded voting options—including mail-in ballots and additional early voting days—give citizens more flexibility. This trend could hint at the new normal for US elections, as voters increasingly value the convenience and accessibility of early voting. Moreover, as states continue to refine and expand their voting infrastructure, early voting options may continue to see high participation rates in the future.
The world watches as Election Day approaches, with the final count determining whether the early exit polls favoring Trump will hold true. Observers and analysts caution against drawing premature conclusions from early voting data alone, as the final tally could still shift. But with significant engagement and record turnout, the election is shaping up to be a historic one that reflects evolving American voting habits. Whether these trends will ultimately lead to Trump securing a second term remains to be seen as Election Day arrives on Tuesday.
